Political turmoil in Bangladesh forces India on a diplomatic tightrope

India finds itself on a diplomatic tightrope over Bangladesh's political turmoil — caught between protecting a former ally and preserving ties with Dhaka's current government.

Twin successive developments in the soil of India’s immediate neighbour have opened fault lines New Delhi can’t possibly ignore.

Every fresh statement of ousted prime minister Sheikh Hasina about returning to her motherland to revive and rejuvenate 77-year-old Awami League (AL) and the resolve of the ruling BNP (Bangladesh National Party) to foil the move have been heating up the political atmosphere in Dhaka.

Despite facing a death sentence, Hasina, during a recent interview to NDTV to mark the 77th founding anniversary of AL, claimed that she would return to Bangladesh before the end of this year, notwithstanding the ‘conspiracies and all obstacles.’

In response, Home Affairs minister and BNP standing committee member Salahuddin Ahmed declared that the Awami League has suffered a "political death" and can no longer do politics in Bangladesh, adding that the party itself will soon face trial.

Hasina, Ahmed alleged, shows no remorse over the killings and burning of bodies during last July's uprising and that protesters were branded militants by the Awami League regime. Even the League leaders continue to incite unrest from abroad.

The most significant aspect which is to be noted here is that he these remarks as a special guest at a memorial event in Dhaka's Agargaon on Saturday last in presence of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman.

Endorsing the observation of his cabinet colleague, Tarique Rahman pointed that the killers of the protesters of the July movement would be tried on Bangladeshi soil, while cautioning against injustice being done in the name of justice.

The event was organized in memory of those killed by the Hasina government in the July 2024 uprising. Hasina who was ousted from power following the mass uprising, resigned as PM and took refuge in New Delhi.

The Awami League's political activities were subsequently banned in Bangladesh. This month marks the second anniversary of the July uprising, with the BNP announcing several programs to mark the occasion.

Bangladesh Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed

The Hasina Factor & Extradition Point

Hasina’s continued stay in India happens to be a sore point in the bilateral relations between the two neighbouring countries. Every fresh Hasina statement — like her renewed vow to return this year — puts New Delhi back in the spotlight, since it's happening on Indian soil whether or not India endorses the content.

Dhaka has formally requested Hasina's extradition to face trial (including the death sentence). India's Ministry of External Affairs said a few months ago that Dhaka's extradition request "is being examined as part of ongoing judicial and internal legal processes," a line India has essentially repeated for over a year.

India, analysts note, is unlikely to give up on a former ally in case the tide turns in the future; however, indefinite stonewalling may carry a diplomatic cost with whatever government is in power in Dhaka.

India: Leverage Points Vs Bilateral Risks

Bangladesh has recently sought India's help with an energy crunch, since it relies on the Middle East for nearly 63% of its crude oil, and a prolonged regional war could shave up to 3% off the GDP of Bangladesh. This gives India some quiet leverage in the relationship even amidst the current tension.

Secondly, India is trying to reset ties through official channels — appointing Dinesh Trivedi, a BJP politician from West Bengal with a long political history, as India's man in Dhaka, partly to leverage his experience as a Bengali politician.

Even as Hasina's continued presence and rhetoric threaten to undercut that effort, analysts frame this as a genuine gamble: a broader effort to reset frayed bilateral ties.

But the recent bonhomie with China and the resultant Teesta Water Treaty have thrown a cloud over India’s diplomatic initiatives. Plus, the two countries are already discussing a Bangladesh-Myanmar-China Economic Corridor.

Another outstanding issue that could bedevil the bilateral relations is the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty which is due to expire in December 2026 as it won’t happen without tough negotiation.